The 93rd Annual Academy Awards: Predictions for the Biggest Awards of the Night

Despite the ongoing pandemic, the movies didn’t stop. Sure, distribution changed and streamers became an even bigger player than they have been previously, but, as they say, the show must go on. And go on it did. Fundamentally, very little changed about movies over the last year. Some were good, some were bad, and even though we watched them differently, the industry marched on.

As with every year, it all culminates into this. Sunday night, the members of the Academy gather before an audience the world over to celebrate the best movies the year had to offer. Even with the ravages of the pandemic, a lot of gems rose to earn their place in film history. This year perhaps more than others, it’s important to remember what it is we want when we watch movies. We want stories we can escape to, narratives to move us, and tales that are timeless.

The nominees for the 93rd annual Academy Awards are no different than they’ve ever been, and just as ever it’s difficult to say for sure who’s going to walk away victorious. But we still gotta try. And so, we revisited all the nominees to make our best guess regarding who is going to all the way to Oscar Glory. We looked at all the biggest awards to try and determine likely winners. Be sure to tune into to ABC on Sunday April 25 at 7pm/5pm Western to see who walks away with the gold.

Best Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who should win: Chloe Zhao hit on something special with Nomadland, which distilled the anxieties of post-Great Recession living into pure cinematic poetry.

Who will win: Two things the Academy loves for certain: movies about Hollywood and movies exploring injustice. That gives us three contenders for the top spot: Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Mank. While I wouldn’t write off the chances of Minari just yet, I think Mank might have a real shot.

Best Director

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

David Fincher, Mank

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Who should win: Zhao, no contest. She crafted a beautiful, heartfelt film that looks and feels like nothing else released last year. She deserves it.

Who will win: How much does the Academy want to give Fincher an award? He’s been nominated twice before and has yet to win. This might just be his year.

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Gary Oldman, Mank

Steven Yeun, Minari

Who should win: In truth, I can make a case for every nominee here. They each did serious work and, truly, they each gave the best performances of the last year. Personally speaking, Riz Ahmed’s performance was transcendent, and I’d love to see him win.

Who will win: Chadwick Boseman. That he turned in this performance while basically on his deathbed is a feat that the Academy will absolutely acknowledge. There’s no contest.

Best Actress

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day, The United States v. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Who should win: This contest comes down to two women: Viola Davis and Frances McDormand. Both actresses have been nominated and won previously and both are more than deserving to bring home the gold.

Who will win: This is a true toss up though, if I were a betting man, I’d lay it all on Davis.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya’s turn as Fred Hampton was an inspired bit of biopic acting that is more than deserving of the win.

Who will win: I worry the decision to pit Kaluuya against co-star Lakeith Stanfield will work against both of them. It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see Sacha Baron Cohen sneak in with a surprise victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Oliva Colman, The Father

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

Who should win: I’m calling this the rematch of the century. Just two years ago, Colman snatched a victory that was rightly Glenn Close’s, shocking the world. Though I wouldn’t necessarily count out Maria Bakalova, the winner will no doubt be either Close or Colman.

Who will win: Glenn Close has never won. That makes her a front runner for sure.

Best Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Who should win: Sound of Metal was a quiet, understated bomb of emotion from writer/director Darius Marder. In a just world, it would win without question.

Who will win: Truthfully, all five nominated films feature fantastic screenplays which makes the actual victor difficult to call. That said, it’s difficult to not see the Academy rewarding Aaron Sorkin, who distilled a complex story into an entertaining and moving film with The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Father

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger

Who should win: Chloe Zhao.

Who will win: Chloe Zhao.

Best Animated Feature

Onward

Over the Moon

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul

Wolfwalkers

Who should win: Tradition dictates that whatever Pixar film was released that year will take home the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. No doubt, Soul meets the standards and, in any other year, would probably be a shoe in.

Who will win: This year features two Pixar films, however. Onward might siphon off enough of the Pixar vote to keep Soul out of contention. In that case, Wolfwalkers, a beautiful film from the makers of The Secret of Kells, absolutely stomps the competition.